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Home Page > Sports and Fitness > Horse Racing > A Horse Racing Handicapping Angle For Picking Races You Can Win

A Horse Racing Handicapping Angle For Picking Races You Can Win

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Posted: Feb 19, 2010 | Views: 198 |

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If you are like most people, you will have good days and bad days betting on horses.  Horse racing handicapping is an art and not a science and that may be why we seem to have good days and bad days.  The more consistent you are, the better your chances of making money on the races.  Therefore, figuring out which races to bet on or even which days to bet on races, is important.

In my own case, I noticed that Fridays were particularly bad days for me to try to make any money on the races.  One of my favorite tracks is Aqueduct in New York.  I have played it for years and really enjoy the racing there.  Overall, I think that they give you good races that are run pretty straight.  But I still have bad days betting on the races there so I did a little research and have found out why I lose on some days and do better on other days.

If you use past performances to handicap a horse race you know that you need horses to be consistent in order to make money.  In other words, if a horse shows that it is in good form and can run 6 furlongs in 1:10 flat, you need to rely on that when making your decisions.  Handicapping relies on consistency for the most part.

I have found there is a direct correlation between the purse and type of race and the consistency of the runners.  In cheap claiming races, for instance, it is hard for the horses to remain consistent because many of them are dealing with injuries or have other problems, such as little ability.  So unless you are good at foretelling which horses will improve and which ones will regress, handicapping cheap claiming races or other cheap races is difficult.  They produce more longshot winners, and while that produces some hefty mutuels, the problem is that there are so many longshots, you just don’t know which ones to back.

Looking at the purses for the week of February 15, 2010 to February 21, 2010, at Aqueduct, it is easy to see why I struggle on Fridays.  Monday was a holiday and therefore had a bigger crowd than you usually get on a weekday.  In order to treat that crowd right, Aqueduct had some good races with a high average purse around $37,900.  On top of that, there were only three claiming races.  Three favorites won that day and not one favorite finished out of the money.

Looking at the races on Wednesday, the 17th, the average purse in the 9 races that day was only  $28,830.  Though 4 favorites did manage to win that day, 3 favorites finished off the board completely.  Looking at Thursday the 18th, the average purse was $23,660 and there were 7 claiming races on the card.  Once again, three favorites did manage to win, but three others ran out of the money.  

You may argue that favorites running out of the money produces an opportunity to make money for a good handicapper, but when races are cheap and favorites run out of the money, it is also an indication that the horses are inconsistent and that presents many problems for a handicapper.

If you are not great at horse racing handicapping and want to try to make some money betting on horses, the best advice is to stick with the most consistent races.  A good way to determine which races might be the most consistent is to look at the purses on the days when you want to put a little flutter on the races.  The higher the purses and fewer claiming races, the better your chances of finding a horse that will run true to form.

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If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill’s handicapping store.

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Home Page > Sports and Fitness > Horse Racing > Horse Racing Basics – What You Need To Know Before You Start Betting on Horse Races

Horse Racing Basics – What You Need To Know Before You Start Betting on Horse Races

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Posted: Aug 13, 2010 |Comments: 0
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There are certain things you need to know about horse racing basics. We’ll cover as many of them as possible here.

Flat or Jumps

In the UK, horse racing is either Flat or National Hunt. Flat races are ones where there are no jumps or hurdles for the horses to navigate, even though the race track itself may undulate. Additionally, flat races can be run on grass or on “all weather” surfaces. The latter are designed to allow racing to continue even if weather conditions would mean that a race on grass would not be safe.

National Hunt races are run from autumn to spring – the ground in the summer is usually too hard for horses to land safely. There are different types of fences and some of the jumps also involve water. These races are usually more of a test of stamina and are normally longer than flat races.

Handicap or not

Some races are described as handicaps. The idea is that each horse in the race is given an individual rating and carries a certain amount of extra weight in order to make each horse as close to equal as possible. If the handicapper has done their job perfectly then each horse should cross the finish line at exactly the same time – which is, of course, impossible. But it does mean that handicap horse races are often more “open” than non-handicap ones.

Distance

In the same way as human runners, horses prefer different distances. Some prefer short sprints whereas others prefer longer races. Short races are measured in furlongs and longer races in both miles and furlongs. There are 8 furlongs in a mile. If a horse has won a race of the same distance, it is (fairly obviously) called a distance winner and will be marked as such on the race card.

Odds

As a general rule, the shorter (smaller) the odds offered for a horse to win a race, the more likely it is to win. Bookmakers and online services such as Betfair offer odds on every horse in every race. When you place a bet, you can choose to accept the odds on offer at the time you place the bet (if the bookmaker you use offers this) or take the “starting price”, which is the actual odds offered at the start of a race. Some bookmakers offer a “best price” guarantee so you can take the odds at the time you place the bet and, if the starting price is greater your bet will be treated as though you had taken the starting price instead. Betting exchanges such as Betfair typically only give you the price at the time your bet is accepted.

Odds give an indication of the likelihood that a horse will win a given race – over time the odds offered are similar to a horse’s chance of winning. But much like a weatherman saying that there’s a 60% chance of rain, nothing is guaranteed for any single occasion. After all, if it was, the bookmakers would be out of business.

There’s lots more to horse racing than the above but these few guidelines will help to get you started.

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Aug 13, 2010

Should You Use A Horse Racing Betting System?

When you place horse racing bets, you have the option of using a level stakes system where you place the same amount on every race or some kind of betting system where you place a variable amount on each race. Ultimately, the decision is down to you but if you decide to opt for a system, you should make sure that it won’t break your bank.

By:
Trevor Stonhaml

Sports and Fitness>
Horse Racingl
Aug 13, 2010

Horse Racing Basics – What You Need To Know Before You Start Betting on Horse Races

There are certain things you need to know about horse racing basics. We’ll cover as many of them as possible here.

By:
Trevor Stonhaml

Sports and Fitness>
Horse Racingl
Aug 13, 2010

Can You Really Get Profitable Horse Racing Tips?

Lots of services offer horse racing tips. You can get them via email, in your newspaper, from a phone line or by SMS text message. But is it possible to get profitable horse racing tips? After all, if the tips really did make a profit, why would someone sell them to you when they could be reducing the odds and cutting their own winnings.

By:
Trevor Stonhaml

Sports and Fitness>
Horse Racingl
Aug 13, 2010

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Like I said, they got out well and were first and second to the wire, but not without some near misses along the way. One of them went wide on the turn and the other one checked the turn and almost got run into by a dog from behind. They recovered well though and regained their speed and position. They’re still young and learning and will probably be very good dogs to bet on some day when they get up into the higher grades.

The other race was a Grade A and it contained two of the best dogs on the track. Oddly enough, they were the quiniela in this race and paid even less at $6.20.  From the time the boxes opened, there was absolutely no doubt in my mind that these two would outrun every other dog in that race, even though some of the other dogs were really good and had raced well at that level before. As I watched the race, I noticed the difference between that race and the Grade M race.

In the M race, a couple of the dogs got out awkwardly. They’d been barking their heads off and for one of them, it was his first race, so he was just a little bit clueless about what to do when the door opened. The 3 came out and took a right, which took out the 4 and the 5, who were a little slow to break. All 3 dogs ended up on the far outside of the track and bumped a couple more times before they got sorted out enough to resume the chase.

It was hard to tell which dog was fastest, because some of them ran so wide or erratically that they might have won the race if they’d hugged the rail and focused on the lure like the two dogs who were the quiniela did. It was obvious that they need a few more races and maybe some schooling races to season them.

There was none of that in the A race. Every dog in that race ran its best race. They broke well, hugged the inside if that’s where they ran, or ran midtrack down the stretch and then went inside to save ground on the turns. There was almost no bumping and you could tell just by looking at them that every one of those dogs knew exactly what to do at every point in a race.

Why is this a lesson when we know that dogs in M aren’t as experienced as dogs in A?  Who at the track doesn’t know that? Well, apparently a lot of people don’t know it. I can tell by the way they bet on Grade M and Grade A races. They bet M races as if all the dogs are consistent and predictable. If there’s a dog with a fast time, even in a schooling race, it’s the chalk and the bettors are amazed when it doesn’t win.

If there’s a dog that’s had several races and hasn’t done better than 2nd, it’s underbet, because it’s disappointed a lot of people who thought it had potential. The things is, it DOES have potential and will win as soon as it figures out how to do that. If a dog can come in second in an M race, most of the time, it’ll eventually come in 1st. Why people expect puppies to win their first or second time out is beyond me.

With Grade A races, a lot of people bet against the favorite because “you can’t make money with favorites.” Well then, don’t bet A races, because the favorites win a lot of the time. Grade A dogs are much more consistent than the other grades. They have to be or they wouldn’t get all the way up the ladder to be in A. The accidents and inconsistencies of lower grade dogs don’t influence A races as much. Look for class and speed in Grade A and you’ll probably find the winner.

In M, look for dogs who are steadily improving or who come from a litter that has some proven puppies. Yes, this means that you have to do some homework, but it’s worth it. Look at the good younger dogs in the higher grade races and then look to see if they have litter mates in M or J. If they can run well enough to advance to a higher grade, there’s a good chance that their brothers and sisters will too.

I like both M and A races. I like the enthusiasm of the puppies and I like the experienced skill of the dogs in the higher grades. Just remember though, when puppies move up from M through the higher grades, they’re running against dogs that have the edge over them in experience.  It’s a whole different racing environment and it often takes them time to find their best races.

The rules for J and M may differ somewhat and, of course, dogs who win in the top grade can’t advance, but these are the basics of how dogs are graded. The reason they’re graded is so that dogs with similar abilities will be running with each other, instead of with dogs who are much better or much worse at winning.

That is, unless they’re in a “T” race. Many people don’t realize that “T” races aren’t special races in the way that Grade “S” or stakes races are. “T” races are set up by the racing secretary, which is interesting, I think. What’s more interesting is that “T” races may include any grade of dog. Think about it.

Instead of being drawn by slips from a hat or cup, the entries are hand-picked. The racing secretary decides – for whatever reason – that there needs to be a race with “special” situations in it and picks the dogs to create that situation. Now, I’m not accusing anyone of anything and as we all know, no matter how people try to influence the dogs, they have a way of surprising, but this sure looks like a chance to make money to me.

Of course, you have to figure out who or why the race was set up for. Is there a good dog in it that hasn’t been running well? Are there dogs from a kennel that isn’t making enough money to survive? Is there a dog with early speed between two slower starting dogs? You really need to examine the race and the entries with a fine-tooth comb to try to break the code, so to speak.

Once in a while, you’ll find a “T” race with a dog in it who is about to be graded off, but is in a favorable position in this “T” race. I’ve seen that happen more than once. I’ve also seen the dog still fail to come in, but I’ve also seen dogs surprise everyone and come in at long odds, beating dogs who looked much better but had difficult boxes or got bumped or blocked.

Sometimes, “T” races are just set up to let some dogs run that wouldn’t have been on the cards – sort of an extra race to tune them up for some reason. Don’t forget that the racing secretary and the dog people know things about their dogs that we don’t know and may have reasons we don’t know about for wanting dogs to race with certain other dogs.

One final note about “T” races. You can’t lean as heavily on class as you do in normal races. Class can be very deceiving in “T” races and so can speed. My advice is to lean more heavily on the angle of style and pace. Try to figure out who’s going to set the pace of the race and then figure out who’s going to run where. That done, look for the dogs with the most advantageous start and clear running room. That’s the way to win a “T” race.

I wanted to find out once and for all what separates the winners from the losers at the race track?

When asking avid horse betters, “What does it take to pick a winner here at the track?” most answered “skill.” When asking, “What finally makes you lay your money down?” most answer, “guts.”

If you go to the track on any given day, you will see hordes of people enjoying a day at the races; making bets and yelling their hearts out in hopes that their “pick” will be the first to the finish line.

If one looks closer you will see another kind of better; a handicapper. A handicapper stands out in the track crowd. The handicapper has come to the track prepared to win. Between races, you won’t see them getting up for food or drink. Their faces are buried deep into the horse better’s bible; “The Daily Racing Form”. A true horse handicapper derives much of their skill for picking winners from studying “The Daily Racing Form”.

The Daily Racing Form is the only daily publication that is strictly geared to the horse racer. The Daily Racing Form has been around since 1894. Its headquarters are in Chicago, Illinois. The first publication printed on November 17,1894 was only four pages long. It was and remains today the number one “America’s Turf Authority” publication. Over 112 years later, the Daily Racing Form has evolved into a complex newspaper which publishes all the needed statistics for handicap races across the United States, along with insightful editorials on the world of racing. The paper publishes daily with the exception of Christmas day.

When polling several handicappers on what kind of race they prefer to bet on, all agreed: “a stakes race.”

Stakes races occur annually, like the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes. These races carry large purses, so they ultimately attract the cream of the crop in horses, jockeys, and trainers. As one handicapper told me, “There are fewer surprises…the talent is there…ripe for the picking.”

Other forms of races include claiming races. Claiming races are the most common types of races at the local track. In a claiming race, every horse on the field is up for sale. A price is pre-established by the owner(s) before the race begins. A horse may be claimed for its entered price by any other licensed horse owner. This transaction is done through a racing secretary. Once the race is over and a horse has been “claimed”, the ownership of the horse is then transferred to its new owners. A claiming race evens the running field, as an owner would not enter a horse that is worth a greater value where the horse could be claimed at low value.

When handicapping a claiming race, I was told it is important to review past performance, jockey, and track condition. Does the horse prefer a dry track verses wet? Has the jockey been doing well with the horse?

Another type of race is the maiden race. This is the handicappers least favorite. A maiden race is made up of horses that have never before won a race.

Last but not least is the allowance race. The allowance race is where the Track Handicapped (Track Secretary) sets the conditions and the type of horses that can be entered into the race.

The handicappers I had the pleasure of spending the day with strongly advise: “Collect information, rely heavily on the performance of a horse, get to know the better jocks and trainers, and always refer to the Daily Racing Form. Oh yeah, and have the guts to put your money on the nose.”